Την τριετία 2016 – 2019 (κυβέρνηση ΣΥΡΙΖΑ), οι τρεις από τους τέσσερις οίκους αξιολόγησης (DBRS, Fitch, S&P) αναβάθμισαν τα ελληνικά ομόλογα κατά 6 βαθμίδες της κλίμακας και ο τέταρτος (η Moody’s) κατά 4, ενώ από τον Οκτώβριο του 2019 μέχρι και σήμερα (κυβέρνηση Ν.Δ.) οι ίδιοι τρεις οίκοι αναβάθμισαν κατά δύο βαθμίδες και ο τέταρτος επίσης κατά 2 (αλλά εκκινώντας δύο βαθμίδες χαμηλότερα) ● Με την εξαίρεση της Moody’s, οι υπόλοιποι τρεις οίκοι έχουν φτάσει τις αξιολογήσεις τους μέχρι μία βαθμίδα κάτω από την επενδυτική.

Η προεκλογική αντιπαράθεση έχει τους δικούς της κανόνες, αλλά οι «αλήθειες» της πραγματικής ζωής είναι, συνηθέστατα, πιο περίπλοκες. Οπως και με το «μαξιλάρι» του χρέους, έτσι και με τις αναβαθμίσεις του ελληνικού αξιόχρεου (δηλαδή του «στάτους» των ελληνικών κρατικών ομολόγων), η κυβέρνηση διεκδικεί την υπεροχή που θα εξασφαλίσει την επενδυτική βαθμίδα – μόνη αυτή, αφού, όπως δήλωσε ο πρωθυπουργός, «με τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δεν πρόκειται να δούμε επενδυτική βαθμίδα ούτε με κιάλια», και η μείζων αντιπολίτευση αντιπαραθέτει τα δικά της πεπραγμένα για να καταρρίψει τους κυβερνητικούς ισχυρισμούς. Πριν μπει κάποιος σε επί της ουσίας σχολιασμούς, το δημοσιευόμενο γράφημα αποτυπώνει μια πραγματικότητα που δεν μπορεί να υποτιμηθεί – μια εικόνα = χίλιες λέξεις.

By Anna Shiryaevskaya and Elena Mazneva

(Bloomberg) — Russian gas is attractive to Europe because it’s usually cheap, easy to transport and almost always available. Some European Union countries depend on it because they are shutting coal plants, and Germany is even planning for the end of nuclear power. Russia’s dominance has been enhanced by the depletion of North Sea fields controlled by the U.K. and the Netherlands. Gazprom PJSC supplies about a third of all gas consumed in Europe and, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was on track to become even more important as the continent shrinks its own production.

1. How did Russia become so significant?

With its vast Siberian fields, Russia has the world’s largest reserves of natural gas. It began exporting to Poland in the 1940s and laid pipelines in the 1960s to deliver fuel to and through satellite states of what was then the Soviet Union. Even at the height of the Cold War, deliveries were steady. But since the Soviet Union broke up, Russia and Ukraine have quarreled over pipelines through Ukrainian territory, prompting Russian authorities to find other routes.

2. How vulnerable is Europe?

A supply crunch in late 2021 provided a vivid insight into Europe’s reliance on gas flows from Russia. Storage tanks in the EU fell to their lowest seasonal level in more than a decade after longer-than-usual maintenance at Norwegian fields and Russia rebuilding its own inventories. Benchmark gas prices more than tripled in 2021. The EU vowed a decade ago to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, and continuing purchases by member nations have been a contentious issue within the economic bloc and caused rifts with the U.S.

3. What role does Ukraine play? 

About a third of Russian gas flowing to Europe passes through Ukraine. Even as the crisis in the region escalated into war, analysts said Russia, with a history of supply disruptions over price disputes, probably would strive to be seen as a reliable supplier. Gazprom’s shipments to Europe and Turkey were about 177 billion cubic meters in 2021, according to calculations by Bloomberg News and BCS Global Markets based on the company’s data. When Ukraine and Russia reached a five-year gas transit deal in December 2019, assuring supplies until 2024, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the nation would earn at least $7 billion from transit fees.

4. Has Russia disrupted the market in the past? 

In 2006 and 2009, disputes with Ukraine over pricing and siphoning of gas led to cutoffs of Russian supplies through the country. The second shutdown lasted almost two weeks in the dead of winter. Slovakia and some Balkan countries had to ration gas, shut factories and cut power supplies. Since then, the most vulnerable countries have raced to lay pipelines, connect grids and build terminals to import liquefied natural gas, a supercooled form of the fuel that can be shipped from as far as Qatar and the U.S.

5. What supply networks are there?

Outside supplies, mostly from Russia, Norway and Algeria, account for about 80% of the gas the EU consumes. Some of the biggest economies are among the most exposed, with Germany importing 90% of its needs. Belgium, Spain and Portugal face the problem of low storage capacity, as does the U.K., which no longer is part of the bloc and closed its only big gas storage site. The continent has a mass of pipelines, including Yamal-Europe, which runs from Russia through Belarus and Poland before reaching Germany, and TAG, which takes Russian gas to Austria and Italy. Many cross several borders, creating plenty of possible choke points.

6.  What about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline?

It was against this background that Nord Stream 2, a new Russian pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany, was completed in late 2021. But it has become entangled in politics and a lengthy regulatory process. There was strong opposition from the U.S., which imposed sanctions that delayed construction but didn’t prevent its completion. Following the eruption of the Ukraine crisis, the process to grant the approval the link needs from German officials has been put on hold.